We estimated an R0 of approximately 2.2, meaning that on average each patient has been spreading infection to 2.2 other people. In general, an epidemic will increase as long as R0 is greater than 1, and control measures aim to reduce the reproductive number to less than 1. The R0 of SARS was estimated to be around 3,12 and SARS outbreaks were successfully controlled by isolation of patients and careful infection control.13 In the case of NCIP, challenges to control include the apparent presence of many mild infections14 and limited resources for isolation of cases and quarantine of their close contacts. Our estimate of R0 was limited to the period up to January 4 because increases in awareness of the outbreak and greater availability and use of tests in more recent weeks will have increased the proportions of infections ascertained. It is possible that subsequent control measures in Wuhan, and more recently elsewhere in the country as well as overseas, have reduced transmissibility, but the detection of an increasing number of cases in other domestic locations and around the world suggest that the epidemic has continued to increase in size.
  
【 在 yingzh 的大作中提到: 】
: 看明白没有？即便用最粗糙的分析，你也看得出来，在1月初的头几天，和华南海鲜市场无关的患者数量就开始占据绝对多数。病毒人际传播的迹象已经非常非常明确了！
:
: 证据是这段，不是2.2，你是故意误解还是断章取义？
: ...................
--
FROM 111.205.170.*