不到成年，都难以有定论
整个成长期间变数太多了，尤其是青春期。
就算核心能力有极大提升，但仍然会伴有性格，心理，抑郁等问题。
【 在 sdali 的大作中提到: 】
: 这个论文是2021年的非常新，主要探讨早期诊断靠谱型，文章对于147个18-48个月确诊ASD谱系一年后跟踪，用ADOS判断程度，基本大部分还有谱系症状，但非常大部分(Significant percentage)程度降低，其中25%（也就是1/4，相当于“摘帽”了，所以X爸访谈里面3个月1年摘帽挺正常，不是个非常小概率事件）不再符合ASD诊断标准，但是这些不符合诊断标准的儿童都还是有一到两个领域的发育迟缓
: One-Year Follow-Up Diagnostic Stability of Autism Spectrum Disorder Diagnosis in a Clinical Sample of Children and Toddlers
: Some studies show that the diagnosis of Autism Spectrum Disorder could be considered reliable and stable in children aged 18 to 24 months. Nevertheless, the diagnostic stability of early ASD diagnosis has not yet been fully demonstrated. This observational study examines the one-year diagnostic stability of autism spectrum disorder diagnosis in a clinical sample of 147 children diagnosed between 18 and 48 months of age. The ADOS-2 scores were used in order to stratify children in three levels of symptom severity: Autism (AD; comparison score 5-7), Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD; comparison score 3-4), and Sub-Threshold Symptoms; (STS; comparison score 1-2). Results: Overall, the largest part of children and toddlers diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder between 18 and 48 months continued to show autistic symptoms at one-year follow-up evaluation. Nevertheless, a significant percentage of children with higher ADOS severity scores exhibited a reduction of symptom severity and, therefore, moved towards a milder severity class one year later. Conversely, the number of subjects of the STS group meaningfully increased. Therefore, at one-year follow-up a statistically significant (χ2(2) = 181.46, p < 0.0001) percentage of subjects (25.2% of the total) who had received a categorical diagnosis of Autistic Disorder or Autism Spectrum Disorder in baseline no longer met the criteria for a categorical diagnosis. Furthermore, children who no longer met the criteria for autism spectrum disorder continue to show delays in one or more neurodevelopmental areas, possibly related to the emergence of other neurodevelopmental/neuropsychiatric disorders. Overall, the comprehensive results of the study account for a high sensibility but a moderate stability of ASD early diagnosis.
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