中午吃完饭闲来无事,就用Monte Carlo的方法模拟了一下我大热火这赛季取得27+连胜与72+胜场的概率。
设定热火主客场对每一个对手的胜率如下表。太复杂的情况比如背靠背、四连客没考虑,因为对手也有相似赛程,就大致忽略了。
模拟结果显示,热火取得72+胜场的概率约为0.2%。取得27+连胜的概率只有0.034%,取得33+连胜的概率只更是低至0.004%。
所以,我大热火这次的win streak估计跟96公牛的72胜一样难得(懒得计算公牛的72+概率了)。
Home Away
§ Boston Celtics 0.6 0.4
§ Brooklyn Nets 0.7 0.6
§ New York Knicks 0.6 0.5
§ Philadelphia 76ers 0.8 0.7
§ Toronto Raptors 0.8 0.7
§ Chicago Bulls 0.6 0.5
§ Cleveland Cavaliers 0.7 0.5
§ Detroit Pistons 0.8 0.7
§ Indiana Pacers 0.6 0.4
§ Milwaukee Bucks 0.6 0.5
§ Atlanta Hawks 0.8 0.7
§ Charlotte Bobcats 0.9 0.8
§ Orlando Magic 0.7 0.6
§ Washington Wizards 0.8 0.7
§ Dallas Mavericks 0.7 0.6
§ Houston Rockets 0.8 0.7
§ Memphis Grizzlies 0.6 0.4
§ New Orleans Hornets 0.8 0.7
§ San Antonio Spurs 0.6 0.4
§ Denver Nuggets 0.6 0.4
§ Minnesota Timberwolves 0.7 0.6
§ Portland Trail Blazers 0.7 0.6
§ Oklahoma City Thunder 0.6 0.4
§ Utah Jazz 0.6 0.4
§ Golden State Warriors 0.8 0.7
§ Los Angeles Clippers 0.6 0.4
§ Los Angeles Lakers 0.7 0.6
§ Phoenix Suns 0.8 0.7
§ Sacramento Kings 0.8 0.7
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修改:magiceagle FROM 76.111.32.*
FROM 130.207.65.*