Cause of crash
On the day of the accident, an aviation professional analyzed that the plane may have already disintegrated before it hit the ground. This is because the ADS-B radar data of the plane involved showed that the plane's descent rate exceeded 8,600 feet (2,600 meters) per minute before it went missing. The professional believes that even if the two engines of a 737 passenger plane fail at the same time, the plane can still fly for a certain distance by gliding, and it is impossible to fall at this speed.
On March 21, Greg Feith, a former investigator of the US National Transportation Safety Board, posted on Facebook that the crash posture and speed of the plane at that time were similar to those of SilkAir Flight 185. He believes that human manipulation of the crash will be one of the investigation directions.
Other aviation experts have also pointed out the possibility of human manipulation of the crash after the accident: John Goglia, a former investigator of the US National Transportation Safety Board, said that the vertical fall of the plane and the pilot's failure to call for help by radio indicate human manipulation as a possible cause. He believes that it is difficult to explain the trajectory of the plane's fall with a mechanical failure. John Cox, an aviation flight safety expert, said that human manipulation of the crash is entirely possible, but he also said that some rare mechanical failures or incorrect flight instrument readings could also lead to the crash.
In response to online rumors about the "pickle fork" component and maintenance costs, Liu Xiaodong, head of the propaganda department of China Eastern Airlines, responded at the fourth press conference held on March 24 that the crashed plane did not involve the inspection of the "pickle fork" component. The previous "pickle fork" inspection work carried out by China Eastern Airlines Technical Yunnan Branch was completed with the cooperation and authorization of Boeing. The corresponding aircraft had retired from the fleet in September 2020. In addition, even though the number of flights has decreased due to the epidemic, China Eastern's maintenance costs have not decreased, but have increased compared to previous years. The relevant data is public and verifiable.
Investigation difficulties
Li Yong, deputy director of the Aviation Safety Office of the Civil Aviation Administration of China, said that the investigation of an aircraft accident is a very complex and systematic work. It needs to be conducted in-depth and comprehensively from multiple aspects, such as aircraft airworthiness maintenance, flight operation, air traffic control, and weather environment. It is necessary to slowly unravel the clues, and experimental verification work may be needed when necessary. Therefore, it takes some time. In the past, the investigation of major flight accidents in the world often takes more than two years. And the investigation work of this accident mainly faces the following three challenges:
The plane suddenly descended from the cruising altitude without any warning, and the air traffic control department did not receive any distress information or abnormal information from the crew.
The impact at the scene was very violent, the wreckage was very fragmented and distributed over a wide area, which brought great difficulties to the work of investigating and collecting evidence through the wreckage.
The crash site is located in a valley area, the site conditions and geographical environment are relatively poor, and the ground is very muddy due to rain soaking, which brings many difficulties to the investigation.
Daniel Adjekum, an American aviation accident investigation expert and ICAO flight safety expert, said in an interview with China Newsweek that the search and investigation work of this incident faces many challenges. In addition to geographical and weather factors, the mountain fire caused by the crash of the passenger plane may also burn some important potential evidence. However, the "black box" can withstand impact in most harsh conditions and can eventually be repaired. He also said that the professional investigation process of air accidents in the world is generally the same. The investigation team should submit a preliminary report to ICAO within 30 days after the incident, and submit a final report within one year of the accident (if it cannot be completed, then submit an interim report on each anniversary until the final report is completed). During the investigation, the accident investigation team may disclose some confirmed factual information in a timely manner to respond to public concerns, but their work goal is not to rush to satisfy the public.
Summary
The cause of the crash of China Eastern Airlines Flight MU5735 is still under investigation. The investigation is facing many challenges, including the lack of warning from the crew before the crash, the fragmentation of the wreckage, and the muddy ground at the crash site. The investigation team is expected to submit a preliminary report to ICAO within 30 days after the incident, and a final report within one year of the accident.
【 在 Xuebaoqin 的大作中提到: 】
: 【 以下文字转载自 NewExpress 讨论区 】
: 发信人: Hudson57 (我是害虫), 信区: NewExpress
: 标 题: 广西梧州空难已近两年
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