(October 23, 2024, By Cortney O'Brien, Fox News) -- While pollster Nate Silver revealed last month that he'd vote for Vice President Kamala Harris on Nov. 5, his "gut" is telling him that former President Trump will win.

Silver set the scene in his new opinion piece by noting that several battleground states have Trump and Harris neck-and-neck. But those numbers don't seem to satisfy observers, who often ask him for a straight answer.

"So OK, I'll tell you," Silver wrote in The New York Times on Wednesday. "My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats."

He says his intuition is partly driven by the notion of nonresponse bias, musing that pollsters aren't reaching enough of Trump's supporters.

Silver referenced a recent Fox News Poll, which shows Trump ahead of Harris in the presidential contest 50%-48%, marking a reversal from last month when Harris had a narrow edge. Silver also cited the TIPP tracking poll, which showed Trump overtaking Harris by a 2-point lead, 49% to 47%.
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