论文被引用超过2000次，得诺贝尔奖的概率有多大？

Clarivate Repeats Success in Nobel Prize Predictions 2025

Oct 14, 2025

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25 September，2025

With just two weeks to go until the winners of the 2025 chemistry Nobel prize are unveiled, a list of researchers whose work has been classed as deserving of this award has been published by Web of Science provider, Clarivate.

This list of citation laureates was created by calculating which researchers’ work was cited 2000 times or more – less than 0.02% of papers fall into this category. This list of highly-cited researchers are then whittled down by experts at the Institute for Scientific Information at Clarivate to create the citation laureates. As of 2002, 83 citation laureates have gone on to receive Nobel prizes, underscoring the predictive power of this method.
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其中一篇 被引用了2955次

Superconducting quantum bits
J Clarke, FK Wilhelm
Nature 453 (7198), 1031-1042, 2008

2955



【 在 quanta1001 的大作中提到: 】
: 今年的物理诺奖文章的引用好像也就几百次
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修改:TexasPotato FROM 116.128.189.*
FROM 116.128.189.*

1. 《Energy-level quantization in the zero-voltage state of a current-biased Josephson junction》（Phys. Rev. Lett. 55, 1543，1985），引用次数约为1890次。

2. 《Measurements of macroscopic quantum tunneling out of the zero-voltage state of a current-biased Josephson junction》（Phys. Rev. Lett. 55, 1908, 1985）：引用次数约为1760次



【 在 quanta1001 的大作中提到: 】
: 今年的物理诺奖文章的引用好像也就几百次
--
修改:TexasPotato FROM 116.128.189.*
FROM 116.128.189.*