经济学人最近搞了一个指数，把不同历史时期的伟大球员的有记载的进球数据用该指数进
行标准化做了几张图，得出了梅西历史最佳的结论。

文章一上来开宗明义指出进球只能体现梅西一半价值，即便如此，梅西的进球也强于其他
伟大球员。

Simply the best
By the numbers, Lionel Messi is European football’s best scorer ever
Goals make up only half of his value, but his scoring was more impactful than
that of other greats
Aug 14th 2021

FOOTBALL’S MOST fruitful partnership has ended in tears. On August 8th a
weeping Lionel Messi said he was leaving Barcelona, the club he joined when
he was just 13. The Argentine forward has scored a record 474 goals in La
Liga, Spain’s top league. His teams have won ten La Liga titles and four
Europe-wide Champions League trophies.
Mr Messi offered to slash his salary in order to stay. But Barcelona is deep
in debt, and pays 95% of its revenue in wages. La Liga has set a ceiling of
70%, forcing the club to let him go. On August 10th he joined Paris Saint-
Germain (PSG), a rich French team.
Now 34, Mr Messi may not even be PSG’s top scorer next season. But the only
question about his peak in 2009-19 is whether it was the greatest ever.

Although historical comparisons are tricky in football, the best available
data suggest that it was.
Mr Messi’s standing relative to his contemporaries can be analysed reliably.
Today, the location and result of every shot, dribble, pass and tackle are
tracked. KU Leuven, a university, and SciSports, an analytics firm, have
built a system to measure how each action affects a team’s odds of scoring,
by comparing where the ball was before and after a player touched it.
In 2012-20, their model reckons that Mr Messi would have boosted an average
team’s scoring margin by 1.77 goals per match. Cristiano Ronaldo, his old
rival at Real Madrid, came a distant second at 1.43.
Comparing Mr Messi with past greats is harder. The only data available for
all European leagues before 2000 are goals scored and match results. And not
all goals are created equal: scoring rates fell sharply from 1950 to 1970,
and goals are easier to come by in weaker leagues.
To level the playing field, we devised an exchange rate called the Modern-
Equivalent Soccer Scoring Index (MESSI). For each season in each league, it
uses the average number of goals per match and team strength?as measured by
the Elo system, which rates clubs based on their results and the quality of
their opponents?to estimate how many goals players would have scored under
different conditions. For example, in the 1960s Eusébio played
in a weak, high-scoring Portuguese league. His goals are worth 37% less than
those in La Liga in 2004-21. By contrast, Diego Maradona faced stout Italian
defences, making his goals worth 5% more than the modern baseline. (We
excluded penalties, which pad some strikers’ stats more than others’.)
After these tweaks, the diminutive Mr Messi stands head and shoulders above
the competition. At his best, he averaged one goal per 90 minutes. Mr Ronaldo
reached 0.9; greats from earlier eras were below 0.8.
These rankings are far from perfect. They underrate players like Maradona and
Johan Cruyff, who were as much creators as finishers. And they cannot capture
the value of defenders like Franz Beckenbauer.
Even among strikers, important data are missing. Ferenc Puskas’s latter
years roughly match Mr Messi’s recent seasons. Unfortunately, Elo ratings do
not exist for the post-war Hungarian leagues that the young Puskas dominated.
Nor are they available for Brazil or America, where Pelé, widely seen as the
greatest player of the 20th century, played club football.
What is certain, based on modern analytics, is that only half of Mr Messi’s
value comes from shots at goal. He is also an extraordinary dribbler and
passer. This suggests that even the prolific Puskas and Pelé may not have
been his equal.■

Sources: PlaymakerStats.com; ClubElo.com; KU Leuven; SciSports; The Economist
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修改:appleater FROM 23.142.224.*
FROM 23.142.224.*

现在西方这种文宣作风快要反噬自身了

【 在 foliver 的大作中提到: 】
: 除了表达梅西虐菜能力超强外，啥也反应不了。不过梅西虐菜能力强是公认的，无需再来证明啥。
: 这篇文章再次说明了西方文宣的厉害之处，先给定一个结果，然后就可以找出支持这个结果的事实。
: 欧足联最佳和国际足联最佳大概就是这样的区别。
: ...................
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FROM 114.248.62.*

考虑啥也是瞎扯。这些研究都是根据想要的结果倒推的。

这个研究我还不太清楚，但其他类似的研究都有一个恨明显的bug：根据他们自己选取的指标拟合，总能得出15年以前梅西C罗表现差不多，但15-16赛季一直到18-19赛季这四年梅西的表现比C罗的要好很多的结论。这恰好与球迷的感受与两人的风评变化是相反的。



【 在 appleater 的大作中提到: 】
: 这个指数考虑了时代背景，联赛对手的实力。
:
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FROM 114.248.62.*

因为明眼人都知道你罗是吃饼员，而梅西的作用大的多啊。

比如你罗欧洲杯世界杯总共主罚了51次任意球，但是只进了1个啊。
比如，2016金球是你罗，当时梅罗同时进入决赛美洲杯欧洲杯决赛。进入决赛之前，梅西的表现远胜C罗。决赛你罗靠队友力挽狂澜，坐板凳靠队友夺冠。而梅西被踢了整场，点球大战惜败。结果你罗拿了冠军你们吹上了天。梅西承受国内巨大压力，拒领了美洲杯最佳球员。如果是梅西坐板凳拿冠军，C罗被踢整场点球大战惜败呢。
【 在 cainiMEI 的大作中提到: 】
: 考虑啥也是瞎扯。这些研究都是根据想要的结果倒推的。
: 这个研究我还不太清楚，但其他类似的研究都有一个恨明显的bug：根据他们自己选取的指标拟合，总能得出15年以前梅西C罗表现差不多，但15-16赛季一直到18-19赛季这四年梅西的表现比C罗的要好很多的结论。这恰好与球迷的感受与两人的风评变化是相反的。
:
: ...................
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FROM 123.147.249.*

就这种水平的高阶数据，nba都玩烂了。一钱不值，随便加个参数就露馅了

【 在 appleater (Raskolnikov) 的大作中提到: 】
: 经济学人最近搞了一个指数，把不同历史时期的伟大球员的有记载的进球数据用该指数进
: 行标准化做了几张图，得出了梅西历史最佳的结论。
: 文章一上来开宗明义指出进球只能体现梅西一半价值，即便如此，梅西的进球也强于其他
: ...................
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修改:profscorp FROM 223.72.44.*
FROM 223.72.44.*