创造的经济gdp是第一
【 在 appleater (Raskolnikov) 的大作中提到: 】
: 标 题: 《经济学人》最近一期称梅西为历史最佳
: 发信站: 水木社区 (Sat Aug 21 14:26:20 2021), 站内
:
: 经济学人最近搞了一个指数，把不同历史时期的伟大球员的有记载的进球数据用该指数
: 进
: 行标准化做了几张图，得出了梅西历史最佳的结论。
:
: 文章一上来开宗明义指出进球只能体现梅西一半价值，即便如此，梅西的进球也强于其
: 他
: 伟大球员。
:
: Simply the best
: By the numbers, Lionel Messi is European football’s best scorer ever
: Goals make up only half of his value, but his scoring was more impactful
: than
: that of other greats
: Aug 14th 2021
:
: FOOTBALL’S MOST fruitful partnership has ended in tears. On August 8th a
: weeping Lionel Messi said he was leaving Barcelona, the club he joined when
: he was just 13. The Argentine forward has scored a record 474 goals in La
: Liga, Spain’s top league. His teams have won ten La Liga titles and four
: Europe-wide Champions League trophies.
: Mr Messi offered to slash his salary in order to stay. But Barcelona is
: deep
: in debt, and pays 95% of its revenue in wages. La Liga has set a ceiling of
: 70%, forcing the club to let him go. On August 10th he joined Paris Saint-
: Germain (PSG), a rich French team.
: Now 34, Mr Messi may not even be PSG’s top scorer next season. But the
: only
: question about his peak in 2009-19 is whether it was the greatest ever.
:
: Although historical comparisons are tricky in football, the best available
: data suggest that it was.
: Mr Messi’s standing relative to his contemporaries can be analysed
: reliably.
: Today, the location and result of every shot, dribble, pass and tackle are
: tracked. KU Leuven, a university, and SciSports, an analytics firm, have
: built a system to measure how each action affects a team’s odds of
: scoring,
: by comparing where the ball was before and after a player touched it.
: In 2012-20, their model reckons that Mr Messi would have boosted an average
: team’s scoring margin by 1.77 goals per match. Cristiano Ronaldo, his old
: rival at Real Madrid, came a distant second at 1.43.
: Comparing Mr Messi with past greats is harder. The only data available for
: all European leagues before 2000 are goals scored and match results. And
: not
: all goals are created equal: scoring rates fell sharply from 1950 to 1970,
: and goals are easier to come by in weaker leagues.
: To level the playing field, we devised an exchange rate called the Modern-
: Equivalent Soccer Scoring Index (MESSI). For each season in each league, it
: uses the average number of goals per match and team strength?as measured by
: the Elo system, which rates clubs based on their results and the quality of
: their opponents?to estimate how many goals players would have scored under
: different conditions. For example, in the 1960s Eusébio played
: in a weak, high-scoring Portuguese league. His goals are worth 37% less
: than
: those in La Liga in 2004-21. By contrast, Diego Maradona faced stout
: Italian
: defences, making his goals worth 5% more than the modern baseline. (We
: excluded penalties, which pad some strikers’ stats more than others’.)
: After these tweaks, the diminutive Mr Messi stands head and shoulders above
: the competition. At his best, he averaged one goal per 90 minutes. Mr
: Ronaldo
: reached 0.9; greats from earlier eras were below 0.8.
: These rankings are far from perfect. They underrate players like Maradona
: and
: Johan Cruyff, who were as much creators as finishers. And they cannot
: capture
: the value of defenders like Franz Beckenbauer.
: Even among strikers, important data are missing. Ferenc Puskas’s latter
: years roughly match Mr Messi’s recent seasons. Unfortunately, Elo ratings
: do
: not exist for the post-war Hungarian leagues that the young Puskas
: dominated.
: Nor are they available for Brazil or America, where Pelé, widely seen as
: the
: greatest player of the 20th century, played club football.
: What is certain, based on modern analytics, is that only half of Mr Messi’
: s
: value comes from shots at goal. He is also an extraordinary dribbler and
: passer. This suggests that even the prolific Puskas and Pelé may not have
: been his equal.■
:
: Sources: PlaymakerStats.com; ClubElo.com; KU Leuven; SciSports; The
: Economist
:
:
:
: --
: 歌德汤真好吃。
:
:
: ※ 修改:·appleater 于 Aug 21 14:56:10 2021 修改本文·[FROM: 23.142.224.*]
: ※ 来源:·水木社区 mysmth.net·[FROM: 23.142.224.*]
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