本码农写代码算了一下
一共有3770种抽签可能，拜仁对上巴萨是724种
应该是19.2%, 不知道是不是哪里弄错了

def uefa_lottery():
    Group = ['A', 'B', 'C', 'D', 'E', 'F', 'G', 'H']
    NationMap = {
        "A1" : "Germany",
        "A2" : "Spain",
        "B1" : "Spain",
        "B2" : "Germany",
        "C1" : "Britain",
        "C2" : "Portugue",
        "D1" : "Britain",
        "D2" : "Italy",
        "E1" : "Britain",
        "E2" : "Spain",
        "F1" : "Germany",
        "F2" : "Italy",
        "G1" : "Italy",
        "G2" : "Spain",
        "H1" : "Germany",
        "H2" : "France",
    }
    Target = "A1G2"
    global _targetCnt, _allCnt
    _targetCnt = 0
    _allCnt = 0
    def _loop(Team, Pair, I):
            G = Group[I]
            G1 = G + "1"
            if not G1 in Team:
                for _G in Group:
                    G2 = _G + "2"
                    if not G2 in Team and _G!=G and NationMap[G1]!=NationMap[G2]:
                        Team.append(G1)
                        Team.append(G2)
                        Pair.append(G1+G2)
                        if len(Pair) == 8:
                            global _targetCnt, _allCnt
                            if Target in Pair:
                                _targetCnt += 1
                            _allCnt += 1
                            print ",".join(Pair)
                        else:
                            _loop(Team, Pair, I+1)
                        Team.pop()
                        Team.pop()
                        Pair.pop()
    
    Pair = []
    Team = []
    _loop(Team, Pair, 0)
    print _targetCnt, _allCnt, float(_targetCnt)/float(_allCnt)
    #724 3770 0.192042440318

【 在 tdhl 的大作中提到: 】
: 不知道扳手指处理不了数据量都叫大数据么？你怎么申请经费的
--
修改:Poacher FROM 60.191.37.*
FROM 60.191.37.*