这个论文是2021年的非常新，主要探讨早期诊断靠谱型，文章对于147个18-48个月确诊ASD谱系一年后跟踪，用ADOS判断程度，基本大部分还有谱系症状，但非常大部分(Significant percentage)程度降低，其中25%（也就是1/4，相当于“摘帽”了，所以X爸访谈里面3个月1年摘帽挺正常，不是个非常小概率事件）不再符合ASD诊断标准，但是这些不符合诊断标准的儿童都还是有一到两个领域的发育迟缓

One-Year Follow-Up Diagnostic Stability of Autism Spectrum Disorder Diagnosis in a Clinical Sample of Children and Toddlers

Some studies show that the diagnosis of Autism Spectrum Disorder could be considered reliable and stable in children aged 18 to 24 months. Nevertheless, the diagnostic stability of early ASD diagnosis has not yet been fully demonstrated. This observational study examines the one-year diagnostic stability of autism spectrum disorder diagnosis in a clinical sample of 147 children diagnosed between 18 and 48 months of age. The ADOS-2 scores were used in order to stratify children in three levels of symptom severity: Autism (AD; comparison score 5-7), Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD; comparison score 3-4), and Sub-Threshold Symptoms; (STS; comparison score 1-2). Results: Overall, the largest part of children and toddlers diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder between 18 and 48 months continued to show autistic symptoms at one-year follow-up evaluation. Nevertheless, a significant percentage of children with higher ADOS severity scores exhibited a reduction of symptom severity and, therefore, moved towards a milder severity class one year later. Conversely, the number of subjects of the STS group meaningfully increased. Therefore, at one-year follow-up a statistically significant (χ2(2) = 181.46, p < 0.0001) percentage of subjects (25.2% of the total) who had received a categorical diagnosis of Autistic Disorder or Autism Spectrum Disorder in baseline no longer met the criteria for a categorical diagnosis. Furthermore, children who no longer met the criteria for autism spectrum disorder continue to show delays in one or more neurodevelopmental areas, possibly related to the emergence of other neurodevelopmental/neuropsychiatric disorders. Overall, the comprehensive results of the study account for a high sensibility but a moderate stability of ASD early diagnosis.

这个是Stephen教授引述的那篇，就是在PDD定义下的症状稳定性研究，跟踪了322个AD的儿童和122个PDD的儿童，结论是36个月之前诊断PDD的儿童三年之后的稳定性只有35%，即只有大概1/3儿童仍然诊断为PDD，而AD诊断稳定性是接近80%

Is pervasive developmental disorder not otherwise specified less stable than autistic disorder? A meta-analysis

We reviewed the stability of the diagnosis of pervasive developmental disorder not otherwise specified (PDD-NOS). A Medline search found eight studies reiterating a diagnostic assessment for PDD-NOS. The pooled group included 322 autistic disorder (AD) and 122 PDD-NOS cases. We used percentage of individuals with same diagnose at Times 1 and 2 as response criterion. The pooled Relative Risk was 1.95 (p < 0.001) showing that AD diagnostic stability was higher than PDD-NOS. When diagnosed before 36 months PDD-NOS bore a 3-year stability rate of 35%. Examining the developmental trajectories showed that PDD-NOS corresponded to a group of heterogeneous pathological conditions including prodromic forms of later AD, remitted or less severe forms of AD, and developmental delays in interaction and communication.

不过还是要说，虽然稳定性不高，但确实不能保证任何人落在lucky的那个范围，但至少证明症状改善可能性很大，即使从1年的那个维度来看
--
修改:sdali FROM 27.125.156.*
FROM 27.125.156.*