时间: Thu Nov 17 22:48:08 2011

http://www.espnstar.com.tw/news/basketball/2011/1116/220230.htm

ESPN：解散工会是噱头 劳资双方还会谈判

ESPN专家阿博特（Henry Abbott）认为，哪怕是劳资双方都将通过法律手段起诉对方，
但双方最终还是会回到谈判桌前继续协商。为此，他给出了8大理由：

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Eight reasons this will end in negotiations
翻译： 一线战斗

1，劳资双方迫不及待想达成协议
The two sides are incredibly close to a deal.
The fight is over things that -- compared to what has been agreed to - are trivial

比起他们已经同意的相关内容，对抗显得没有必要

2，NBA的产值高达数十亿美元
NBA has billions in revenues
more than just the $4 billion that makes up basketball-related income (BRI).The league drives further value to broadcasters, corporate partners and the like. There are big economic forces in play, and they all prefer that the league be operational and driving those revenues

不只是40亿美元的篮球相关收入，联盟还关乎着电视转播商等合作伙伴的相关利益。电视转播商这些大的经济力量都希望联盟可以正常运转

3，球员的损失越来越多，而这些损失并不会失而复得
The players are losing huge amounts of money that they won't ever get back
, even if they get everything in their last proposal.

哪怕是他们在最后的提议当中得到了他们想要的一切

4，强硬派老板可以让事情变得极为复杂，但是他们的影响却非常有限，因为劳资双方目前已经对五五分成的提议交换了意见
The money-losing hardline owners can complicate things. But their influence would seem to be finite now that the league and players have traded offers at 50 percent of BRI for active players.
More revenue sharing is on the way. Barring a vast new effort by owners to get players to knuckle under -- an effort by the way, which would undermine the league's claims of bargaining in good faith -- the relief for those owners would seem to be set. In other words, the increased money the owners want is not on the table anyway.

老板们再想让球员屈服则会被认为是削弱了联盟"诚意谈判"的主张。换句话说，老板们没法在谈判桌上得到更多的金钱

5，比利．亨特（Billy Hunter）分散了经纪人的权力
The strident agents had a big hammer over Billy Hunter and the union
If they decertified the union, the union would disband and Hunter would lose his salary. By disclaiming the union, the Hunter has removed the agents' ability to affect things much. Now agents will have to exercise their influence through their clients, presumably by having them named as plaintiffs.

在此之前，经纪人曾经严厉批评亨特和球员工会。而如果让经纪人解散球员工会，那么亨特在工会解散后将拿不到属于自己的薪水。但选择"利益放弃"，亨特则成功分散了经纪人的权力。如今经纪人只能透过自己的客户来实施他们的影响力

6，NBA很早就希望上诉法院
It would be an understatement to say the NBA anticipated this move
Indeed, they filed a lawsuit in August predicting it. That suit, however, has no chance of winning a new CBA for the league. Instead it is designed to minimize the leverage players could gain from such a move. In other words, the NBA always expected this as a negotiating tool, not as a permanent shift in the nature of the debate.

实际上，联盟在8月份的时候就预言会诉诸法律。然而，诉诸法律并不能为联盟赢得新的劳资协议。相反，联盟上诉法院的目的还是为了将球员的利益最小化。换句话说，NBA只是希望把诉诸法律当作他们谈判的一种工具

7，打赢反垄断公司需要数年的时间，如果持续三年时间，球员将为此损失60亿美元。
Seeing an antitrust matter all the way through to its final resolution could take years, costing players $6 billion or more in salary if it lasts three years.

It makes little sense that this would be the players' plan. On Monday
their new attorney, David Boies, seemed to confirm that the players envision a quicker resolution. He said that his clients were not going to seek an injunction because that would take a long time and what the players are focusing on right now is what the fastest way to get this resolved. Similarly, Derek Fisher says "we continue to want to get to work, to get back to work, to negotiate, but that process has broken down."

显然，如果打赢官司是球员的计划，那么这么做就没有太多的意义。在前天，球员代表律师博伊斯（David Boies）表示，球员期盼更快的决议，"球员现在关注的是什么方式能够最快的解决问题"。同样，费舍尔（Derek Fisher）也表示"我们仍然想回去工作、协商，但是谈判的过程已经破灭了"

8，没有其他结束的方式
There is no other way for it to end
Even if the process does reach the point where a judge makes a ruling, the judge is still not going to write a new agreement to govern the operation of the NBA. That will be negotiated sooner or later, as all parties involved know.

即使等到了法院裁决，法院也不会填写支配NBA运作的新协议。双方迟早会谈判，所有的谈判参与者都心知肚明。
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FROM 115.27.21.*