论文被引用超过2000次，得诺贝尔奖的概率有多大？

Clarivate Repeats Success in Nobel Prize Predictions 2025

Oct 14, 2025

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25 September，2025

With just two weeks to go until the winners of the 2025 chemistry Nobel prize are unveiled, a list of researchers whose work has been classed as deserving of this award has been published by Web of Science provider, Clarivate.

This list of citation laureates was created by calculating which researchers’ work was cited 2000 times or more – less than 0.02% of papers fall into this category. This list of highly-cited researchers are then whittled down by experts at the Institute for Scientific Information at Clarivate to create the citation laureates. As of 2002, 83 citation laureates have gone on to receive Nobel prizes, underscoring the predictive power of this method.
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